After 4 straight years of 67% ATS or better in the NBA post season and 15 years of experience in this business, I have become accustomed to public opinion usually being wrong, which is why I have had great success going against public opinion and winning some cash for myself and clients over the years, especially as of late. This proves again, like in football, oddsmakers base a lot of the lines on public perception. Every year I sit and watch with great interest the games of no interest to the general public the last month of the season with games involving teams playing for the 5th through 8th seeds. While everyone else is watching Phoenix, Dallas, Detroit and San Antonio on TNT on Thursday and Saturday's, I am watching games on Direct TV that have little public appeal and doing my homework. The real value lies in any sport when not focusing on marquee teams, until forced to late in the playoffs when those teams square off for 7 games, and by then it is a crapshoot.

The thought process is parallel between myself and the public in one respect, Detroit out of the East and Dallas out of the West should make the finals, and clearly are the best teams from each conference. I offer this however, there are some serious landmines along the way, and neither team could end up in the finals. I am going to offer up another scenario, how about Toronto and San Antonio in the finals? A very real possibility. My two main dark horses in this years NBA Playoffs, and no doubt worth a small play on future props on the moneyline.

Toronto is my dark horse in the East as well as New Jersey, whom ironically are playing each other in the first round. While people are fixated on Miami and Chicago being the big deal in round 1 in the East, I suggest keeping an eye on this series up in Canada and how it plays out. New Jersey has plenty of experience and firepower, and at times can play some great defense. Vince Carter is still off the map, and he will be focused to play his old team. I think Chris Bosh is clearly the most underrated player, and under appreciated player in the NBA, he is all world. The Raptors are 5 wins away from the best record in the East, and bested the Nets by 6 games overall for the division title. The Raptors were the best ATS cover team overall in the NBA at 48-33-1 this season and led into the All Star Break with that ATS lead, and even though books adjusted the lines on them as the season went along, they still managed to pull out the best cover record, which is impressive. The Raptors are 30-11 SU at home, but just 17-24 SU on the road, but then again no one in the East is impressive on the road. With TJ Ford and Juan Dixon along with Anthony Parker at guards, they are solid up top and Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani in the paint, this team can will make a run. Keep an eye on them early and often.

Contenders are Miami, with a healthy Dwayne Wade and even New Jersey as mentioned before if they get through Toronto, will be very dangerous. I am not sold on Cleveland, because they have no shooting guards or point guards, or really any offensive scheme other than letting King James touch it 300 times game and do what he wants. Clearly Detroit is for real and has the best shot at it, but the East has far more parity in it that the West and Detroit not making the Finals would not surprise me at all.

My dark horse in the West, if you can call it that, is San Antonio. Like Dallas they have 5 pure starters who have experience and chemistry. You cannot discount them against either Dallas or the Phoenix. They have the 3rd best road record in the West at 27-14 SU and are 3rd in field goal and 3-point percentage in all of the NBA. They lack rebounding on offense which is a problem for easy points, but they make up for that on the defensive side of the ball. They rank #1 in the NBA in total defense, and as they always say, defense wins championships folks. They have a tough series against a very good Denver team with Iverson and Carmelo both in top form, a brutal series. If they do not fatigue early on, look for them to not go quietly into the night folks.

It is obvious the Suns are a major contender and seem to be every sportswriters 1st or second, but I say again, without defense or even an emphasis on it, you cannot win championships in the NBA by simply scoring 120 points or more a game while holding your opponents to 115 ppg! The Lakers pose no threat and no doubt it will be a short series for them in the opening round. Dallas takes on Golden State, a team they went 0-4 against in the regular season, however the last game was given to Golden State and Don Nelson by Avery Johnson, by not playing his stars in that one. It may come back and bite him in the butt, Dallas does not match up well against them, and the Warriors have confidence and Don Nelson knows Dallas better than anyone, an interesting scenario to say the least.

All in all, another wild and wacky NBA season with some disappointments and surprises this year, but at the end of the day in the NBA, the better team usually wins in convincing fashion when it is all on the line. I always look at the first 2 rounds for the best pointspread opportunity, and the teams featured here may provide some excellent opportunities in the right spots. I'll bet you this much, whoever gets out of the West takes the title in 6 or less games, without breaking much of a sweat! Any takers onm that one?

Be sure to check out Tony's Playoff Package this season. Better than 68% EACH of the past 3 post season!