 The Big 12 South Report By Tony George www.sportsaudioshows.com As I have already posted up the Big 12 North for you with Missouri on top followed closely by my alma mater Nebraska, I will repeat myself again. October 6th is Judgment Day in the Big 12, with Nebraska and Missouri playing in Columbia for the northern bragging rights and a probable trip to San Antonio on the line, while Texas and Oklahoma will battle it out in Dallas at the annual Red River Shootout. These two games outcomes could tell the tale of the Big 12 championship game in San Antonio this year.
Unlike the north division, the south division presents some serious landmines for the front runners. There is a ton of parity in the southern division and it is entirely possible that neither Oklahoma or Texas could win it, as both Texas AM and Oklahoma State have a legitimate shot this year. This southern division depends on scheduling and injuries that could play a role late in the season. For what it is worth, I will give out my rankings which may in fact surprise a few people, and just like my northern rankings, ruffle a few feathers from loyalists. Do not forget, this is my specialty conference that I have won 62% ATS or better in all my games posted over the past 6 years. THE BIG 12 SOUTH 1. TEXAS No doubt with preseason rankings in polls as high as #2 behind USC; this is a no brainer, as they are the most talented team in the Big 12 conference. They are not the best coached team in the Big 12, which is what puts the fear of God in every Longhorn fan every year. Mac Brown has a reputation for a colossal blunder every year, and last year's loss at Kansas State cost them a trip to the title game, and then a monster upset at the hands of rival Texas AM. A very close 2-point bowl win against Iowa left a bad taste in the mouth of fans and players in Austin off a national title the year before. On offense this team is talented and deep at skill positions, and loaded with speed. After a freshman year of learning, Colt McCoy tied and NCAA frosh record with 29 TD passes. The stage is set for the next 3 years at QB in Austin, the kid is a stud. Backed up by another in the long line of Texas RB's who can get it done, Jamaal Charles is a solid back who averaged over 7 yards per carry as a freshman and over 5 yards last year. That is the problem however this year if not corrected. The drop in OL production is an issue, and the Longhorns have to replace 3 studs that have graduated but have seasoned seniors to fill in he gaps, but line play must improve. They are loaded at WR headed up by all-world Limas Sweed, as well as Pittman and Cosby, with plenty of back-ups in the fold. This offense was 6th in the nation in scoring at 35 ppg last year, and I expect more of the same, but running the ball better will win them a championship. On defense they are once again tough against the run, ranked 3rd in the nation last year and should be better this year. They are still loaded at DL, but the linebackers were not as solid as usual last year, but they return loads of experience. Head defensive coordinator Gene Chizek left for the Iowa State job, so secondary coach Duane Akina steps in. The pass defense was ranked 99th in the country last year and they lost 3 DB starters on that squad, and it still may be a weakness but should improve. They will need to blitz and rush the passer better this year, and with a new scheme or two should provide relief. Too much emphasis was placed on stopping the run, so man-to-man coverage was the problem, and this year expect to see more zone and Cover-two defense from Texas. I also would expect to see more blitz packages with their speed. Special teams is iffy and the worst issue they must face in fall camp, but Kicker Ryan Bailey stepped in last year, won a game at Nebraska in the final seconds and has not looked back since. SUMMARY; All in all, Texas is a top 3 team in the nation, and clearly better than anyone in the Big 12 right now, especially at skill positions on offense. They get Oklahoma in Dallas, and a weak non-conference patsy schedule, and also get Nebraska and Texas Tech at home this year. The game at Texas AM in Dallas this year looms large in late November, but the Longhorns have serious payback in mind. Another possible upset spot, perfect for Mac Brown's reputation, is at Oklahoma State in November. Texas could easily be undefeated with this schedule, and should win the Big 12 this year and play for a national title, barring the fact Mac Brown does not fall asleep at the wheel in the getaway car this year. 2. TEXAS A&M Yep, Oklahoma has been demoted and we will get to that later. I liked this team last year and they simply were a year away from what I felt was greatness, and a win over Texas last year in Austin was a preview of things to come in my mind, they had 1 point losses to both Oklahoma and Nebraska and 3 point loss to Texas Tech. They could have won all 3 of those games, especially Nebraska at home. They ended up getting blown out by a solid Cal club in a bowl game, but this team is balanced, strong and for real. Head Coach Dennis Franchione is under the gun this year to hit it big, but he vastly improved this team last year, they are ready to make a major move in 2007. They are my dark horse pick in the South. On offense they have one of the strongest running games in the nation led by Javorskie Lane and Mike Goodson. Lane comes in at about 270 pounds and is like trying to stop a train, and Goodson is speedy and averaged over 6 yards per carry last year. They are fronted by an all-world offensive line that is ranked in the top 3 in the nation. The compliment is QB Stephen McGee, who threw for 12 TD's and only 2 interceptions and ran for over 600 yards. He is accurate, dangerous, and now has experience and confidence, and his line in tact to boot. They are loaded at WR with Taylor and have a 2 tight end set featuring 2 good ones, led by all American material Martellus Bennett. There is no weakness on offense; the balance and experience are rock solid. On defense they went from dead last in 2005 in pass defense to 44th last year and return 6 starters on defense. Chris Harrington returns at end, and is a good one, and led the team in tackles last year. The DL is big and strong and will be tough to run against, and their pass rush is solid. The linebackers are iffy but experienced and should improve. The secondary returns 3 guys who can make plays, as well as the fact this position is very deep for Texas AM. They also force turnovers well, and were ranked 9th over all last year in turnover ratio. I like this unit a lot, and think they will be a top 30 overall unit in 2007. The special teams returners are back and they are burners, and they have a good punter and capable kicker as well. SUMMARY: The obvious test is Texas in Dallas on November 23; it could easily be for the Big 12 south title. They have a non-conference game at Miami which will be a huge test early on, and if they win that, look out! Games at Nebraska and Oklahoma loom large, but this team is capable of winning both of them, especially at Nebraska with this offense and balanced attack. Another landmine is playing at revenge minded Missouri the week after OU, which is a tough spot. They have a week off before playing Texas after that, which they will need. Could this be the year of the Aggies and the 12th man? I think it might be, but you are looking at a 9 -10 win team potentially and a major bowl bid in the works. 3. OKLAHOMA Bottom line is, no proven QB in the house right now. I am not sold on OU when pitted against Texas AM in the south, but the saving grace for Sooner fans is that they get the Aggies in Norman this year. They ended last year with a wild and whacky loss to Boise State in the bowl game, one of the best games ever played in college football. A team leader on offense is needed at QB and is a question mark even at this late stage, so I give the nod to Texas AM as an overall better team. The good news is Bob Stoops is a coaching wizard and they have an easy schedule to help them along. Sooner nation is in for an uncertain ride this season. On offense as mentioned, OU needs a QB. The spring game which I watched on film was a nightmare at QB, and with 3 guys entering fall camp still trying out for the job, youth and inexperience is the theme. Junior Joey Halzel, redshirt frosh Sam Bradford, or incoming frosh Keith Nicole will vie for the spot, I expect Halzel to win it. Whoever gets it will have a good OL, a solid RB in Patrick, and some good WR's, especially Malcolmb Kelly, who is one of the best in the Big 12, and top 10 in the nation, and is a huge playmaker for the Sooners. There will be a learning curve here early on, so hopefully whoever gets the QB job, will be ready come conference time. An injury at QB could be devastating, which is why I ranked this team 3rd. On defense the Sooners, as always are strong with a great secondary led by Reggie Smith, and DB's Walker and Harris are big hitters and good cover guys as well. The linebackers are iffy at best, and without leader Ryan Reynolds back from knee surgery (a question mark, check status in the fall), this could be a serious issue for the Sooners. The DL is average at best, with both starting DE's needing replaced. Without experience on the DL and weak at LB, against high octane teams or teams like Texas AM that will run it down your throat, this defense needs a few guys to step up and make plays to establish an attitude that OU is known for. One good thing to report, the special teams are loaded for Oklahoma with a great kicker, solid punter and a solid return game all in tact. This will be a crucial part of this team in tight games. SUMMARY: Oklahoma is going to win their fair share of games this year, but they have 3 massive tests. They get Miami at home in game 2 of the season and though Miami is down, without an experienced QB it is a tough test. Then the bog one, Texas in the Red River Shootout, which is a HUGE test, and then Texas AM at home. Those 3 games are their biggest hurdles by far. The rest of schedule is easy and they get their tough games at home, including one against Okie State which is always a thriller and never a gimmie, and should again be a shootout this year. Overall, with talent a skill positions, but weak in stopping the run and rushing the passer, and a huge question mark at QB, I cannot go higher than 3rd. Texas and Texas AM look better on paper to begin the season, although Bob Stoops has pulled off some miracles in his day, he will have to coach his best season this year to return to the championship game and a BCS bowl. A national 7th place ranking is way too high. 4. OKLAHOMA STATE This is a young team with talent, a young coach hungry to make his mark, and rabid support from the fans in Stillwater make the Cowboys a dangerous team and a huge upset in the making for anyone who overlooks them like Nebraska did in 2006. This team is LOADED on offense and have tons of talent, and if the defense gets better, they can make some noise this season. Beating Alabama in the Bowl Game last year was a fitting end to the season. Mike Gundy the head coach may have his best season ever in 2007, and 2006 was a big stepping stone. On offense this team is awesome. Bobby Reid at QB is a stud, they have 8 starters returning from the 7th ranked scoring offense in the nation in 2006, and all players who made it happen at skill positions return. WR Bowman returns and is a game breaker and stud and a go to guy in the clutch. The running back Dantrell Savage returns and his back-up Toston also is back. Both RB's can catch and run it, and they amassed over 1400 yards last year together. QB Reid is a major force, and will take off and run it, and he is quick. He threw for 29 TD's last year and has an arsenal of weapons. This offense scored 35 ppg last year and may score more this year. Look for Reid to take off and run it more this year and not force passes, and if so, it opens everything else up. If the defense can improve, this team could win 8 or 9 games with ease. A new coordinator was brought in from Ohio State in Tim Beckman, and he has installed an aggressive style of defense that should pay dividends. This team returns 8 starters from last year and they have solid young LB's, and good cover guys as well in Van Zant and converted ex-QB Donovan Woods is back for his senior year and is a playmaker. The defensive ends are both seniors with vast experience and they have a solid DL in tact, but they must do better in all areas, and especially in scoring allowed. An average unit overall at best, but there is massive potential with some new schemes with this much experience in place. The defense will determine their path in 2007. If the defense shores itself up, this team is dangerous, and I mean they can score lights out if they want to. With good special teams in place, a solid offense and big playmakers, and a few key turnovers, they could upset any team in the south. Games at Nebraska, who has serious revenge on their minds after a defeat last year in Stillwater, and games at Texas AM and Oklahoma are going to be tough ones. The opener this season is at Georgia, which is brutal. If they can play well there and gain some confidence on defense, it could set the tone for the rest of the season. A bowl game again is very likely for Cowboy backers this year and potentially a breakout season. 5. TEXAS TECH The head coach Mike Leach experiment in Lubbock is wearing thin. Tons of offense and a quick strike attack with little or no defense, and not many signature wins against strong opponents is not a good thing. In division I football, and especially the Big 12, you have to play defense and be a well rounded team to succeed. A lopsided attack with even the best QB's, is always troublesome and a defense ranked 86th versus the run needs to be improved on this year, but still the Red Raiders will compete at a high level. On offense QB Graham Harrell returns and what a great year he had, like all Tech QB's under Leach. Harrell threw for over 4800 yards and 38 TD's, and Shannon Woods returns after a 900 yard season at RB, although he was demoted in spring practice, he will start. Losing their 2 top WR's is going to hurt some, but they have a proven veteran in Amendola and some good rotation receivers from last year, so the production in the quick strike spread throwing attack should be good again. The problem is replacing all but 1 starter from an OL line which was extremely proficient at containing the pass rush, so there is inexperience here. Overall the offense will click, but needs to be more balanced after posting a 112th place ranking in rushing the ball last year. With only 4 starters returning on offense, there is cause for concern early on. On defense they return 5 starters from last year so-so unit. They will be good in the secondary, as they led the Big 12 in passing yards allowed, and they have 3 out of 4 players back. The linebackers and DL is a huge question mark with youth and inexperience and physical teams that run could dominate them. They must develop quickly as only 1 LB returns, and this unit had trouble rushing the passer last year with good players, and both ends are gone. This will once again be a sore spot and the pressure will be on the offense to score 30+ points a game to contend. With little depth, it also takes its toll when you have a prolific offense that can score quickly and you send the defense back out with little rest. For a better defense, they need more balance on offense. SUMMARY: Business as usual in Lubbock. You are looking at 7-8 wins and a bowl game. Last year they won a thriller against Minnesota that cost Glen Mason his job in the bowl game, and they no doubt will see a lower tier bowl again in 2007. They have good special teams players and a great kicker, and an offense that will win them games, but in the South, you must play defense. Not championship material but a better than average ball team that is not as good as last year edition in my mind. 6. BAYLOR No surprise here, the Bears bring up the rear in the Big 12 South again. Guy Morriss is breaking in 5 new coaches and I hope 1 of them can teach Baylor how to run the ball. They ranked 199th in the nation at running the ball at 40 yards per game, which is just horrible. QB Shawn Bell is gone and a 5th year Senior who is at his 4th university in 5 years may get the call, Michael Machen. They have all new WR's and their top receiver last year was RB Whitaker who does return. A revamped and inexperienced OL and last years 11th ranked passing attack in the nation will struggle this year. This unit is young and will need some time. I will not spend much time here, but Baylor will struggle this year on offense. They need some serious balance on offense and without a mobile QB in their spread attack it could make for some long Saturdays. Shawn Bell will be sorely missed this year. The defense will be on it knees after the 2nd quarter with no offensive production, and though they return 6 starters and a decent LB unit in Moore and Pawelek, who was a frosh All-American last year. The secondary is a mess and they ranked 100th last year in total defense in the nation. I see little improvement in terms of young players other than whom they have returning, but Jordan Lake at safety could play for about anyone in the Big 12 and is a big hitter. When your safety is one of your leading tacklers, you are not getting it done up front. They could not get much worse than last year, so I give them a chance to improve. SUMMARY: Another dismal year in Waco. A road trip opener to TCU will be brutal and the southern division will use Baylor as a whipping boy again. For Baylor fans another insufferable year and the string of getting no more than 3 conference wins in a season is another real possibility. |
