By Tony George www.sportsaudioshows.com  

Once again my specialty conference will be a player in the BCS Bowl picture in 2007. Not to throw away and dispense with all the trials and tribulations of a season long struggle by 12 teams top reach the pinnacle of the championship game in December, however October 6th is judgment day for the Big 12. North division front runners Missouri and Nebraska clash in Columbia, Missouri on that day, as well as south division front runners Oklahoma and Texas tee it up in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas for the annual Red River Shootout. These two games on this day have a high probability that the winners will meet in the championship game. Both the south and north divisions are top heavy with these teams, and no doubt that 6th of October will go a long way in determining who represents the Big 12 in an automatic BCS Bowl berth. After another year at 62% ATS or better in the Big 12 (6 year streak now), I once again POUND this conference with weekly winners, and my featured Big 12 Game of the Week is always top seller at any site I appear on, and this year will be no different.

Four teams in the Big 12 conference made it to the pre-season Top 25, with Texas at #2, Oklahoma at #8, Nebraska at #18 and Texas AM at #23. My dark horse Missouri came in at #28 in the rankings so a respectable number of teams this year as the entire conference should be stronger. Let’s break down first the north division in this report and the south division in my next report.

THE BIG 12 NORTH RANKINGS

It should come down to a game in Columbia Missouri on October 6th for the northern division rights to head to the Championship game in the Almodome. Have no doubts, Nebraska is the front runner with depth on offense as the West Coast attack from Bill Callahan enters this season with a full head of steam, and Missouri counters with all world QB Chase Daniel and the returning 8th ranked offense in the country. Let’s break it all down including my dark horse winner.

1. Missouri I give the edge to Missouri over Nebraska for 3 reasons in the North. They get Nebraska at home first and foremost. Secondly they have more proven talent overall at skill positions, and thirdly, they can trade punches on offense with the nation’s elite. Quarterback Chase Daniel led the 8th ranked offense in the country last year, and they will need to score plenty of points with a defense that only returns 4 starters from last year. Leading the quick strike attack which returns 9 starters, Daniel had a school record 3527 yards through the air with 28 TD passes and all his weapons at WR return, and TE Martin Rucker (whose brother played for Nebraska and is a starter on the Carolina Panthers) is a potential All-American. Tony Temple rushed for over 1000 yards last year and there is no shortage of depth for this team, and the line returns in tact. They also have an all conference kicker to make big plays in the clutch. Scoring 35 ppg should be no problem for the Tigers. This is a high octane, up-tempo offense that keeps defenses on their heels.

The problem is special teams and defense. While being able to put enough points on the board to compete with the conference elite, they must have some playmakers here to win a championship, or a bowl game. The good news is Brock Christopher returns at LB and he was the teams leading tackler last year. They also have a rock solid and experienced DL with Williams and Hood leading the charge. The question mark is the secondary and pass rush. Darnell Terrell is an all conference type cover corner; however the rest of the unit is young and shaky. They will allow passing yards against them, although running against the Tigers may be tough going. Missouri ranked 115th in the nation in kickoff return yards last year and have not ran a kickoff for a TD since 1982, so special teams will have to improve, but with a good punter returning and a solid kicker, I give this unit a B+.

SUMMARY- While trying to outscore Nebraska will be a feat against a west coast offense with their defense; I feel at home they can win a big game this year against the Huskers. Missouri’s offense will be one of the top 10 in the nation again, and I feel enough to carry them in big games. Do not underestimate Chase Daniel, a 2nd team all conference QB in the pre-season, he could easily emerge big time like Brad Smith before him. Led by HC Gary Pinkel, this team has some real potential. Having to play Oklahoma in Norman the week after Nebraska looms large, as well as playing Kansas State in Manhattan in November. They get Texas AM at home November 10th and that will be a huge test for them. Overall if they beat Nebraska and win against K State and Kansas at seasons end, they should make it to the championship game, where a beat down from a team to be named from the south could occur. The Tigers have some bite and are lurking in the shadows in 2007. 2. Nebraska Being from Lincoln Nebraska and a huge Husker fan, it pains me to rank them 2nd, but it also gives me hope that NU can return to Championship game in December. The problem is on offense, and the question marks that surround it. They have yet to really explode consistently for Bill Callahan. Having to replace Big 12 offensive player of the year, QB Zac Taylor is a huge obstacle, as well as RB Brandon Jackson who is now a Green Bay Packer, drafted as a junior. Nebraska does have their swagger back, but losing to Oklahoma in the championship game last year, and getting beat by Auburn in the bowl game has them ready to prove something in 2007 on a national level.

When you lose your top 2 players on offense, not to mention off field troubles for their best player overall, WR Bobby Purify, the offense is a question mark. It is unknown the status of Purify heading into fall camp, but their will be a suspension for a domestic violence charge against his girlfriend. The all saints savior is slated to be Sam Keller at QB. An NFL prospect 2 years ago at Arizona State, he transferred last year and took a redshirt to play his senior season at Nebraska, as he was benched in a huge controversy at Arizona State. He has had a year to learn the complicated offense, and has a gun for an arm, and does have division I experience as a starter. He looked good in NU’s spring game and is a pure drop back NFL type passer. He has weapons at RB despite the departure of Jackson, with Lucky and Glenn, both proven backs who can turn the corner, and he has 3 returning WR’s in the arsenal who are playmakers led by Purify and Terrance Nunn, who also does special teams duties and can turn on the jets. The OL should be a vast improvement and are big and physical. If QB Keller cannot get it done, the Joe Ganz, a 3 year second stringer will get the call. It will be interesting the pre-conference schedule to see if this unit gels, and if they do, they can be productive.

The defense is solid this year, but the pass rush lost Adam Carriker at DE and he was a high draft pick and Defensive player of the year at end in 2006. With Potter and Turner projected to start at end with little experience, let’s hope the all star unit of LB’s, the strength of the defense, does some blitzing. Bo Rudd (bother and father both played at NU, and both played in the NFL) is an all conference player at LB and McKeon is also a stud. Another big question mark is DB Zach Bowman, a potential all star who missed all last year with a knee injury. Potentially an NFL player, his status in unknown, and Nebraska simply does not have good cover corners. DB Grixby is a horrible cornerback, and Oklahoma threw all over him last year in the championship game, and he returns as a starter again. NU also has some kicking issues as well, which is a big concern in tight games.

SUMMARY- With a shaky pass rush and shaky cornerbacks, games at Missouri and Texas are troublesome, along with a September 15th date against #1 USC in Lincoln as well. QB Booty may set a record in Lincoln in passing yards for USC. If the QB position settles in, Nebraska could beat Missouri in October and win the title in the north. Border rival Kansas State is at home and the Huskers also get Texas AM at home as well, so a season final against Colorado could decide the north. Coach Bill Callahan enters his fourth year and has yet to really have a signature win, so a win against USC and or Texas, or a title game win is needed in Husker nation in order to keep the natives happy, as NU is desperate for a top 10 finish in the country. There is a lot riding this season in Lincoln Nebraska, and the Huskers have some real potential to make a mark. Husker nation is optimistic this year they can return to the championship game again. If not heads may roll at seasons end in Lincoln. 3. Kansas State Ron Prince’s first year as head coach last year had many ups and downs. The biggest win at K-State last year was a shootout against Texas at home which they won, showcasing their biggest weapon, 6’6” 250 pound QB Josh Freeman, only 1 of 2 freshman starters to led their team to a bowl game in 2006. Freeman is the key for K-State again this year and has NFL potential. Switching defensive schemes this year, the addition of 4 new position coaches, 13 returning starters, and a solid defense should keep K-State in the hunt, and if overlooked by anyone, the Wildcats are an upset in the making.

On offense QB Freeman is all world, but after a freshman year of more interceptions that TD’s, it rests on his shoulders to calm down and lead this team, and they have plenty of firepower. Freeman is mobile and can launch it deep. Running backs Johnson and Patton are a great 1-2 punch, and Patton has breakaway speed and is a special team’s threat as well. Jordy Nelson at WR was slowed with injuries in 2006, but still led the team in receptions at 45 last year. With his return at 100%, he is a deep threat and a guy who can make big plays when spread out in the flat with dump off passes. Using a two tight end set, they look to spread out defenses and have Freeman roaming, and this provides a challenge for most defenses. Only scoring 22 ppg must be improved on from last year, but the OL must improve so the Wildcats can balance their offense better. If this can happen and the offense gels, K-State will be able to score some points and have a quick strike offense.

On defense a new scheme, switching from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defense should utilize skill players better and make the Wildcats better on the corners. Ian Campbell and Reggie Walker are good ones at LB, and they have a solid core of returning lineman here. The return of safety Marcus Watts is key, back from missing 4 games at seasons end, he is all Big 12 material and he anchors the DB’s who are speedy and big hitters. Starting 2 junior college transfers early may produce some mistakes; but the defense is will be better this season. Kansas State is tough against the pass but must shore up the run defense this year. Special teams are iffy and a mixed bag of players. The kicking duties are up in the air and a weak spot for the Wildcats.

SUMMARY- Games at Texas and at Nebraska loom large on the schedule along with Oklahoma State. A bowl bid could come down to a late November, out of conference game against Fresno State on the road. With QB Freeman’s continued growth, and the defense settling in with a new scheme that highlights their talents better, K- State should see a bowl in 2007, but I doubt they contend with Missouri and Nebraska for the north title. A late season tilt with Missouri at home could prove pivotal. This team is young but talented but struggling through a learning curve in 2007, but very capable. 4. Kansas Last year Kansas was rolling until all the wheels came off late. The Jayhawks blew so many leads and lost by 7 points or less it was scary. They took Nebraska into double OT in Lincoln only to lose while a back-up QB set an all-time passing record against Nebraska in that game, they blew a lead to Texas AM at home and lost, and lost to Toledo on the road in overtime as well. They are loaded at QB and continue to improve their status in the Big 12 under Mark Magino as head coach.

On offense they have 2 QB’s capable of starting, but the two headed QB monster could backfire. Kerry Meir looked great in the spring game I attended, as well as Todd Reesing. Both are good solid QB’s, with Meir having the experience factor on his side; he is well above average for a division I QB. Kansas has to replace all big 12 RB Jon Cornish and 3 OL starters, one of them all Big 12 last year. They are weak at RB, and also lost their top receiver from last year but both Fields and Henry are veterans and should become a threat if Meir can get them the ball. Kansas must stop turning the ball over through the air.

On defense Kansas was ranked 119th in the country at stopping the pass, that was dead last in division I. Kansas is deep and good at LB with Wright and Holt along with Joe Mortensen in the middle and they have a very capable cover corner in Talib. They should improve in the secondary but their pass rush was deplorable in 2006, and I see no new blood to change that. This must improve since ground control on offense is shaky at best with their running game.

SUMMARY – Kansas has an inability to stop the pass again this year and with high octane offense’s like K-State, Missouri and Nebraska, as well as Texas AM, it could be a struggle to match last years 6-6 record with no bowl game. A road trip to in-state rival Kansas St on October 6th is a huge test early, and roadies at Texas AM and improving Oklahoma State look like losses. Kansas needs to get through the preseason conference schedule undefeated to have a shot at a winning record and pick up a road win at Colorado here to have a shot at a bowl. I doubt Kansas is as good as last years addition and another .500 or less season in the making.

5. Colorado Last year ex-Boise State coach Dan Hawkins was welcomed to BCS conference football with a horrific year overall. Colorado was defeated by Division II-A Montana State at home, lost badly to rival Nebraska at seasons end and finished 2-10. They ranked dead last in almost every offensive category in the Big 12, as the spread attack and shotgun offense of Hawkins has serious talent problems, and the defense simply was wore out by the 3rd quarter. This year should improve with wins, but the learning curve is still in effect. Implementation of an all new scheme on offense always takes time, just look no father than Nebraska 4 years ago.

It will start at quarterback for the Buffs. Last year they struggled to make anything happen on offense. This year Cody Hawkins, the coach’s son enters as a redshirt frosh and should get the starting nod, he was all world in high school. Incoming JUCO transfer Nick Nelson was highly touted and will compete for the starting job, but the future lies with Hawkins. The OL is deplorable and they recruited 8 Offensive linemen this past year. This is a rebuilding process here on offense and mistakes will be made. Using their running game as a threat with Hugh Charles at RB will be key, he is a solid back. There is little at WR either in terms of talent, and in this offensive scheme is doom. They have no playmakers on offense right now and their top WR who returns, only had 24 catches all last year. A work in progress, young and inexperienced.

The defense is solid at LB with Jordon Dizon being an all Big 12 performer but the rest of the defense is poor. The secondary who is young and inexperienced gave opposing QB’s a 67% completion rate against them last year and I see little improvement here. That is trouble against the spread attacks they will face. They have run stoppers on DL and at LB and are very good against the run, but overall they will give up big plays. Special teams for Colorado are all new players and yet to even be established other than a 4 year kicker who has been a back-up till now.

SUMMARY- Getting the fans back in the seats, who are disgruntled with the program and some of the worst fans in college football in terms of loyalty and behavior, will be a tall chore this year for Colorado. Getting a season opening win against Colorado State in Denver would be a huge plus, so they have a big game right out of the gate. Road trips to Arizona State, and Texas Tech are losses along with season ending game at Nebraska are simply too much to expect a win for the Buffs. A 5 or 6 win season along with establishing the QB position and having some playmakers emerge for next season would be a vast improvement. Coach Dan Hawkins knows how to win, but this season will be a struggle. 6. Iowa State After huge expectations last year with a vastly talented team, especially on offense, the Cyclones self destructed and long time head coach Dan McCarney was fired at seasons end. Enter Gene Chizek from Texas as the new head coach, and an all new staff of coaches and you have a slight mess on your hands in Ames this year. All world QB Bret Meyer had no help last year, but still could be the best QB in the Big 12 North behind Chase Daniel of Missouri. A learning process this year for Iowa State and a brutal schedule will not help.

On offense they managed with all star cast last year to rank 81st in the nation overall and 99th in scoring. QB Meyer is mobile and can make big plays, but the running game is not there in any form. One main weapon returns, all Big 12 WR Todd Blythe, and he is a good one. Only 4 starters on offense return, and all new OL is in place and a new coordinator as well, so this year will prove to be about the same as last year, no balance. Even though they have talent at skill positions here and a decent 1-2 punch at RB, with a young OL, it will be tough sledding.

The defense returns 5 starters from a unit that was ranked 105th in the nation in scoring allowed. There are issues at the DB position and rush ends for openers. They did not force many turnovers last year, and with an ineffective offense, the defense will see tons of playing time again in 2007, and with little depth at skill positions, this unit will give up points. Alvin Bowen at LB is the leader of the defense, and is an NFL draft pick without question, and led the nation in tackles per game last year. Without a supporting cast, he will be busy again.

With little to work with, Gene Chizek will find about the same results as last years team, about 4 or 5 wins at best. The implementation of JUCO players (12 were signed last year), and the mixed bag of current talent will be a tall chore in this division. Games at Nebraska, Texas Tech and Missouri are locks to lose, but Iowa State does have numerous games at home including pre-season patsies Kent State and Northern Iowa. The annual Iowa game is also at home this year, but do not look for an upset there. A complete rebuilding year for ISU, and it is shame since Bret Meyer is a great QB in the shadows of mediocre talent around him. Anything over 5 wins would be a huge success here.

Tony George enters his 16th year as a sports handicapper. Known nationwide as a reputable handicapper and well know radio personality, Tony's wares can be found at www.sportaudioshows.com . Tony has 0ver 40 top 10 awards from reputable monitoring serives, including handicapping contests in Las Vegas.