NCAA Tourney recap

By Tony George www.sportsaudioshows.com  

Once again brackets are shattered, office pools are all but lost, and many bankrolls might be drained. Those public perception based lines killed many recreational gamblers in the Big Dance. Some of us old veteran handicappers fared pretty well, including myself, going a perfect 7-0 in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 tourney picks. On my website, 5 out of 10 cappers went through the first 2 rounds of the tourney undefeated with their picks. Do you want to know why and how?

PUBLIC PERCEPTION is the answer, plain and simple, and I preached this well in advance of the tourney. Oddsmakers KNOW where the public will land on side plays, many of them laying the wood with the same ol' public darling teams. Duke is a good example in round 1. How in the holy hell does Duke warrant a 6th place seed and an 8 point line against a team like VCU? I took VCU both ATS and on the moneyline in that game personally. When you lose in the first round of your conference tourney, and lose 6 out of your last 10 games, what in the heck are you even doing in the tourney, plus getting a 6th seed? Baiting the public would be a good answer with a public Darling team as far as oddsmakers are concerned. Trust me on that, it dropped to 6 points or less after opening at over 8 points, and Vegas Books still cleaned out many pockets of the non sharp public bettors.

Lets fast forward to the Sweet 16 and another example of public based lines. I was all over Memphis against Texas AM. The Big 12 was top heavy all year with Kansas, as the Big 10 was with Ohio State. You have a team that finished 3rd in their conference, was a lower seed than Memphis, and never even played in their conference tourney championship, yet they were favored in that game. The public perceives that Texas AM is from a bigger and stronger conference, discounting the Memphis Tigers, who were 31-3 entering that game. I do not care what conference you are from, if you have 31 wins against 3 losses, and a big name head coach, like Calipari is, you are a good basketball team. Oh yeah, Memphis won straight up in that game.

Another team was Kansas, who was overrated all year. Being from Big 12 country, I knew this going into the tourney. We were all over Southern Illinois and UCLA against them, and cashed big tickets without breaking a sweat. When you have a good perimeter game like KU, and come up against a great defensive team that defends the 3-point shot like both UCLA and Southern Illinois, Kansas is a go against team in that scenario, and quite frankly, UCLA is a much better team than KU, as the score indicated. Once again, Kansas is a public darling team.

Overall I think the best 4 teams made it to the final 4, and I had all 4 teams in the final in my bracket. I see the opening lines are out in those games, both totals at around 129 to 130, with Florida carrying the 3-point favorite tab, and Ohio State laying a point to the Hoyas. Seems about right and now the lines are sharp and there are no surprises, any of these 4 teams can win it all. Can Georgetown's size compete with Ohio State's Oden and tough defense? Can UCLA avenge a national title loss to Florida in serious payback mode? Many answers and analysis will be given by ESPN and everyone else, but I find 1 semi-final game that is clear as day to me. Look past the hype and see the numbers, and the way these teams played to get here, and who they beat. There lies the answer to profit. Those who listen to Dickey V on ESPN, would have bought into Drexel being left out of the tourney as a good team, only to lose a home game in round 1 of the NIT. Stick to the fundamentals in the Final Four, the best free play you will find on the internet today!