Missouri Valley NCAA Hoops Value

By Tony George www.sportsaudioshows.com  

As March approaches, it is time to breakdown this mid-major conference with a couple of rock solid teams, once again on their way to the March Madness Tourney, and as always, it comes down to Creighton and Southern Illinois. Dana Altman, in Omaha Nebraska, has had 12 post season appearances with the Creighton Bluejays in his 13 years at Creighton as head coach after leaving Kansas State. It seems at years end every year, his name pops up in prominent areas to fill head coaching spots, but he is loyal to the Creighton program, and trust me, the Bluejay fans love this guy. Also many Nebraska fans love him, however have been unable to land him, and they tried last year after their head coach left the program to no avail.

The Salukis from Southern Illinois, just handed Creighton a 4 point loss and swept the Bluejays this season in regular season play, which adds an interesting backdrop to the Mo Valley tourney in St. Louis should they meet for round 3 of the series this season. It is very tough to beat a good team 3 times in one season, just for your notebook. Lets take a look at the conference overall, and some teams to keep an eye on down the stretch run here, as there are some contenders in here, including Wichita State.

One thing you need to know, is that HOME TEAMS are a sure fire take more times than not in Mo Valley. The worst team in the conference is 10-4 at home. Southern Illinois the best team is 14-0 at home and Creighton is 12-1 at home. As a matter of fact, no team has less than 10 wins at home. Wichita State is 11-3 and Bradley, who is a world beater at home is 13-2. When Illinois State is the worst team in Mo Valley, yet they are 10-4 at home, rest assured if you ever have a home dog of more than 3 or 4 points no matter who they are playing, it is worth a second look folks.

Southern Illinois sits on top of this conference at 21-5 overall and allowing only 55 ppg at home. They are followed closely by Creighton at 17-8 and Wichita State at 17-9. Out of those 3 top teams, the team with the best road record is Southern Illinois, which is CRUCIAL down the stretch run, they are an 7-5. The ONLY other team in the Mo Valley with a winning road record is Missouri State at an impressive 8-4, and a high scoring team at that and a wildcard team in my opinion in the Valley come tourney time. They score 80 ppg at home and are 80% ats at home this season as well. Amazing that out of 10 teams in this conference having winning road records, and only 1 team out of the Top 4 included in that elite group.

Wichita State does not have the team they had last year and the defense of the Shockers is not near as good as the one last year that landed them in Sweet 16. But they are none the less formidable, and if overlooked will beat anyone in the conference. Bradley also is another team that is one to keep an eye on, however at just 4-8 on the road away from home, they simply cannot get it done away from home. Both Northern Iowa and Missouri State are very capable teams, and Missouri State when hot from the floor, can really rack up the points.

The Missouri Valley conference again shows a ton of parity, especially with so many teams so dominant at home. This mid-major conference always makes some noise in the post season tourneys, and have quality teams scattered throughout the conference. I would not be shocked if either Southern Illinois or Creighton did not win the conference post season tourney as many capable teams mentioned here can beat them on neutral courts. Once again this conference will provide excellent opportunities if you know where to look, and I have my eyes on this conference each and every day.

BETTING SUMMARY: I would look for both Creighton and Southern Illinois to finish very strong in February and cover more times than not on strong home courts, as well as looking at OVER Plays when under 140 with Missouri State. Southern Illinois only scores 55 ppg on the road and allows 54 ppg on the road, so a line of 120+ on the Saluki's would be worth an UNDER play. Next update come Conference Tourney Time.