By Tony George www.sportsaudioshows.com  

Yes the NCAA Football polls have been released, and anything but ranking USC #1 in purely speculation by nameless and faceless writers who know as much about the game as my 8th grader in some cases. How important are the polls to head coaches in Division I? Not very, unless they are a BCS school in the running at mid-season, because 90% of division I coaches have their under studies vote the polls for them for USA Today coaches poll. Regional writers give weight to teams in their area. Do you think some fat, bloated East Coast writer who is a huge Rutgers fan sits up past midnight to watch Arizona play Washington State? If Rutgers has a season like they did last year, his only agenda is to make sure he ranks them very prominently. I do not count on polls as a barometer as to how good a team is, and then look at lines from oddsmakers and determine there is value. If you do, you will quickly be broke.

I read an interesting article on-line the other day that said in last 10 years, Top 10 ranked teams at the beginning of the season went .503 ATS, hardly a wallet fattening proposition. For instance USC when they won the title in 2005, went .500 ATS for the season. Historically the top team in the nation is a bad bet if you lay the wood with them. I suggest another tact for those who care to make some money.

I ALWAYS look for reasons go against the numbers with top ranked teams. They are now the public darling (USC), and are laying over 45 points in their opener already, and no doubt it will be close to 50 by the opening bell. I for one would be all over the Idaho Vandals, since the following game USC has Nebraska on deck in Lincoln, no easy task there, and Pete Carroll and staff might want to be healthy! I know it is Idaho, a sacrificial lamb so to speak for Pete Carroll and his players, but you are basically spotting a division I team over 6 touchdowns before the kickoff, knowing you have a game on deck that is a potential landmine. Lets see, if you only win by 41, do think the writers and coaches will vote you #2 in the next weeks polls? I will GUARANTEE you the last thing Pete Carroll has on his mind is covering 45+ points against Idaho.

Be sure and look at the top ranked teams playing patsy's in the early part of the schedule, especially when laying 4+ touchdowns. Look at their schedule closely, because if they have a big time opponent on deck, chances are the scheduling spot may affect how long the starters will play and what a teams focus might be. Opening up with a 45+ point spread to cover in week 1, no matter how good you are, is a tall chore. You have had scrimmages in practice, but nothing replaces a team who is David playing Goliath and may in fact have their adrenaline pumping enough to make it interesting for awhile. Just think about it for a minute. If Idaho scores 10 points, USC needs 56 points to cover. I know I would be sweating if I was a coach if a key player goes down in game 1, which could happen on any play, and high profile coaches of high profile teams know this. Bettors beware of the rankings and high pointspreads, it can be a killer early on!

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