A March Madness Mindset

By Tony George www.sportsaudioshows.com  

The brigade of bettors lining up to lay it on the line for March Madness, many of them coming out of the woodwork for the first time this NCAA Hoops season, brings to mind some duties for those of us who handicap, wager and follow the NCAA season all year long. It is a time of year where one must understand that wagering the NCAA and NIT tourney's are vastly different than the regular season. I did a radio show the other day with some station in LA, and the comments from not only the sports jock DJ, but the callers brought this to light, so I thought I would make some suggestions I have learned from 15 years of experience.

Remember this is a different animal to handicap by far than the regular season. Have no illusions about oddsmakers, they want the public's money, and they will set lines based on public perception. When this occurs, sharp players like myself and clients who join me, take advantage of late line swings and lines in general that are off by 4-6 points from the opening bell in some cases. Be sure to look for fundamentally sound basketball teams, especially lower seeds in the big dance or higher seeded mid-majors in the NIT tourney. These type of basketball teams do well in the post season, and in many occurrences, have won or came close to winning their conference in the conference tourney's or they won the regular season title. A good example of this scenario is BOTH Creighton and Southern Illinois, both out of the Missouri Valley. Both well coached, with some star power, and both fundamentally very sound, they will make some noise in the big dance, I assure you.

When I see teams like Florida for instance who ended their regular season with a big win on national TV against an average Kentucky team, I shudder to think about the lines they will carry this tourney season. If you looked closely at that game, they left the perimeter wide open for Kentucky to shoot 3's all day, missed tons of free throws, and played sloppy defense. Of course they won, which makes John Q Public think they are going to repeat, so the oddsmakers will set the line high with the returning champs. This is a team that was humiliated by an average Tennessee team and lost 3 out of 4 down the stretch, but now it is all better, or so the public thinks. Oddsmakers are in heaven as you read this. Duke stinks this year, but I'll bet a dime to a dollar they get an amazing seeding and will carry a big number in round 1, because the public loves to bet teams like Duke, North Carolina, Pitt and other public darlings who make it in. Do not get caught in this web of deceit.

Now it is time for the same old story I repeat about 100 times a day to my clients, and I write about 20 times a year. Shopping your lines is crucial in the post season. It is always crucial, but more so when lots of public money comes into March Madness or any sporting event. Totals and sides are both in play here. Having more than 1 outlet to shop at is worth 3-5 units alone in the post season in March Madness. If you are using a legit betting service like mine, when the plays are released, bet them as soon as humanly possible. You will see totals swing 3-5 points in rounds 1 and 2 and side plays 2-4 points in some cases. The line value comes early to sharp players, and then again I will wait and let them swing and catch more value, especially with underdogs by betting and posting plays 4 hours or less before tip-off. Handicapping the line as much as the game is crucial in March Madness, and I watch my line service closely during this time as knowing when value is created by a mindless public in Vegas, and line adjustments that happen without merit is a cash cow if you know how to play it and have discipline.

As always, there will be upsets. I do not play trends in the tourney, like when a #15 seed usually covers and scares a #2 seed and so on and so forth. It is better to look at who is peaking, who was a mid-seed in a conference tourney that made some noise and lastly teams that played well away from home, either straight up or against the line. This is a crucial stat I always weigh heavy with come tourney time and capping games. There are many variables to consider, and many over hyped conferences that are very top heavy that will get more than their fair share of teams in like the Big 10 and Big 12 for instance.

And lastly, my 15 years has told me one thing about handicapping and betting sports, LESS IS MORE! Too many bettors tend to get carried away in the first round of the big dance and have like 12 bets, plus parleys every which way but loose. This is sure fire way to lose an entire tourney bankroll on Day 1. Single out bets in each bracket if you must, but limit your plays to best bets whom you or your service feels are solid wagers, because at days end you will have a thicker wallet using this discipline.